Monday, May 17, 2010

IN THE END, THE AMERICAN ECONOMY WILL COME OUT STRONGER THAN EVER.

We have gone through one of the worst economic crisis in history, a time will come when you will hear the "experts" call it the "second great depression" or something similar.
All the "chicken littles" are going wild with their pessimistic predictions and proclaim that we are going into a deeper mess, but if you think about it....this won't happen.
America is by far the largest and strongest economy in the world, we are 14% of the population, yet produce 47% of the goods and services in the planet.... we are the best! we are not going down that easily.
The Government did the right thing when they applied the bailout money and injected trillions into the economy, because at that point, the only thing that was missing was the money, modern economies are more about perception than having a "standard" or a shiny metal to support the currency, and people that think otherwise are most likely old, and ignorant. You cannot expect a growing society to base its currency on a limited supply of anything, much less gold, leave that to the cave men and rap singers (because of the bling bling).
The crisis we had, was a crisis of confidence; all the different industries in our economies go through cycles constantly, the good part of the cycle is a boom, the bad part is a crisis, or a recession; this time we went through a bigger cycle, where everything aligned and went into crisis at the same time: stocks, housing, automobiles, jobs...... very, very scary. And the only way of pulling out of this is by injecting money... changing the generalized perception that "nothing has value".... When people start seeing job security, when they are busy at work, get a pay raise, more orders, they become confident, they start spending more money and this virtuous cycle moves the economy forward, as simple as that.

The problem with the bailout would be that it generates inflation, because the injected money is just printed, but the great thing that we are starting to see happening, is that it is not only us, who printed money, the rest of the world is now going through the storm that we passed.....and they are now following our steps and bailing out their economies, guess what will happen to inflation.....it will cancel out! We will have a strong economy, growing like crazy, healthier than a few years back....ALELUYA, ALELUYA.

TO PROVE MY POINT, HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED IN EUROPE THIS WEEK:

The sovereign debt concerns in Europe will continue to be the focus; the euro currency is collapsing and we expect more of it this week. A weakening euro, or stated another way, the strengthening dollar, reduces the US export trade as US goods become more costly. Should be another week of high interday and intraday volatility in the US stock and bond markets. Given the uncertainty and fears swirling around Greece and other mid-major European economies, the lack of inflation pressures, investors should look to long term treasuries. The real rate of return when inflation is subtracted is still about 4.00% for a 30 yr treasury. Looking for the stock market to open better on Monday but the rest of the week is questionable. Economic data this week has a few data points and the minutes from the 4/28-29 FOMC meeting on Wednesday. In the present environment most of the US market directions will be led by what the European markets do and what comes from the various ECB and EU officials. Watch the euro currency; as it falls it has a negative implication for the US equity markets and adds some support to treasuries on safety moves. Market volatility will likely remain high

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