ECONOMIC UPDATE

Dominating last week's financial news was a precipitous plunge in sales of both new and existing homes for the month of July.
Sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops during July dropped a shocking 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units, down from June's downwardly revised rate of 5.26 million units, according to figures from the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing housing sales in July were the lowest figures on record since NAR's existing home sales data began in 1999.
Single-family home sales (the lion's share of existing home sales) dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July, down from 4.62 million in June. This was the lowest single-family home sales rate since May 1995, according to NAR.
Once again, the end of the homebuyer tax credit incentive was chalked up as the main driver in July's plummet.
"Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, who added that the poor sales pace will likely continue for a few months. "Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September."
While July's existing home sales were off by an alarming amount, prices continued to hold their line. The median price for all types of existing homes was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago.
Despite the fact that total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing units, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, Yun does not predict a tapering in home prices.
"Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers," he said. "However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and [given] very low new-home construction [rates], there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward."

Sales of new single-family homes during July dropped to a record-low rate of 276,000, which was 12.4 percent below June's revised rate of 315,000, according to figures released last week by the Census Bureau. This is the lowest rate on record since 1963.

In terms of pricing and inventory, the median sales price of new houses sold during July was $204,000 and the average sales price was $235,300. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 210,000, representing a 9.1-month supply at the current sales rate.

"A double-digit drop suggests to me that there wasn't just a tax effect at work in July, but a change in sentiment, a change in the willingness to make such a big purchase," FTN Financial chief economist Christopher Low told the Los Angeles Times. "It is especially surprising given where mortgage rates were. It is just a reminder of how much work there is still left to do before housing can be deemed healthy again."

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THE END OF THE McMANSIONS???

If you own a McMansion and are having a tough time hanging on to it (trying to refinance, going through hardship) it is time to really think if it is worth the pain and suffering, the following article might shed some light on the future of your McHeadache:

"Tey’ve been called McMansions, Starter Castles, Garage Mahals and Faux Chateaus but here’s the latest thing you can call them — History.
In the past few years, there have been an increasing number of references made to the “McMansion glut” and the “McMansion backlash,” as more towns pass ordinances against garishly large homes, which are generally over 3,000 square feet and built very close together.
What sets a McMansion apart from a regular mansion, according to Wikipedia, are a few characteristics: They’re tacky, they lack a definitive style and they have a “displeasingly jumbled appearance.”
Well, count 2010 as the year the last nail was hammered into the McCoffin: In its latest report on home-buying trends, real-estate site Trulia declares: “The McMansion Era Is Over.”
Just 9 percent of the people surveyed by Trulia said their ideal home size was over 3,200 square feet. Meanwhile, more than one-third said their ideal size was under 2,000 feet.
“That’s something that would’ve been unbelievable just a few years back,” said Pete Flint, CEO and co-founder of Trulia. “Americans are moving away from McMansions.”
The comments echoed those made in June by Kermit Baker, the chief economist at the American Institute of Architects.
“We continue to move away from the McMansion chapter of residential design, with more demand for practicality throughout the home,” Baker said. “There has been a drop off in the popularity of upscale property enhancements such as formal landscaping, decorative water features, tennis courts, and gazebos.”
“McMansions just look and feel out of place today, given the more cautious environment everyone’s living in,” said Paul Bishop, vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors.
And homebuilders are heeding the call: In a survey of builders last year, nine out of 10 said they planned to build smaller or lower-priced homes.
Even in Texas, the land of go big or go home, they’re downsizing.
Diane Cheatham, owner of Urban Edge Developers in Dallas, said today, the average size of home they’re building is 2,200 square feet, down from 2,500 in 2005 — which was considered small for Dallas back then.
She said the trend there is more toward building green homes instead of big homes. Right now, they’re building a 1,200-square-foot uber-green home for a couple that’s downsizing from 3,000-square feet, Cheatham explained.
1,200? Some of the hair in Texas is bigger than that!
"We’ve never built one that small,” Cheatham confessed, but added: “I think that’s just a good example of the trend right now.”
For a little historical context, 1,200 square feet was the average home size in America in the 1960s. That grew to 1,710 square feet in the 1980s and 2,330 square feet in the 2000s.
What’s more, many in the real-estate business say they think this trend of downsizing, or “right-sizing,” as Flint likes to call it, is here to stay.
"This is absolutely a long-term effect,” he said. “Think of families with small children who’ve been foreclosed upon … When these teenagers are in a position to buy a home, they won’t want to go through these experiences they saw their parents go through.”
Of course, the question becomes, what do we do with all these McMansions that have already been built?
It’s tempting to make jokes about what you might do with a former McMansion but with crime on the rise in neighborhoods littered with abandoned McMansions, Christopher Leinberger, in an article for the Atlantic, asked a sobering question: Is this the next slum?
Luckily, people are starting to get creative: A film collective in Seattle has taken over a 10,000-square foot McMansion there, using it for both living and work space. They turned a wine closet into an editing room and tossed a green screen in the garage. And in a suburb of San Diego, one couple turned a former McMansion into a home for autistic adults.

The demise of the McMansion has stirred a growing chorus of murmurs in the real-estate community about the possibility that it may force a dramatic redesign of the suburban McMansion tracts into mini-towns of their own, turning these icons of excess into more practical spaces like offices, banks, grocery stores and movie theaters.

Though, given some of the poor quality of materials and craftsmanship, it begs the question, would it be better to just tear them all down and start from scratch?

Credit to Harris Real Estate University .. houseINsandiego Realty

SLOWLY RECOVERING, BUT SIGNS ARE STILL POSITIVE!

The already choppy economic recovery will continue its slow advance this year, but growth will deteriorate as its primary contributors — government stimulus and manufacturing — lose steam. Furthermore, no new economic drivers have emerged to propel the recovery into a self-perpetuating expansion, suggesting below-trend GDP growth will persist through the second half. The impact of the government stimulus on GDP growth has declined slowly since peaking in the third quarter of 2009, while the manufacturing sector, which returned to expansion mode during the third quarter of last year, began losing momentum three months ago.


Strength in the manufacturing sector through the early stages of the recovery was fueled by accelerating exports and business inventory restocking following the severe correction cycle; however, both drivers lost vigor in recent months. During the second quarter, exports advanced just 0.4 percent, a significant slowdown from the first quarter of 2010 and fourth quarter of 2009, when exports grew 4.5 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively. The impact of business inventory growth also declined during the second quarter, accounting for just over 1 percentage point of the overall GDP figure, versus contributions of more than 2.6 percentage points during the previous two periods.

Recent manufacturing sector indicators reflect weakening but also point to a somewhat orderly slowdown as opposed to a steep drop-off, which should help keep the recovery intact. In July, a leading manufacturing index slipped 70 basis points to 55.5, though the monthly figure indicates continued expansion in the sector. These weaker index results can be largely attributed to reduced orders, a possible sign the post-recessionary boost from business inventory building has run its course. A few bright spots remain, as industrial production rose modestly in July after declining in the previous month. Autos led factory output, a positive shift after the sector’s near collapse last year. Gains were also notable in other segments, including high-tech goods and business equipment, suggesting companies are beginning to satisfy pent-up demand after a prolonged period of conservation.
(Credit to Hessam Nadji, Marcus & Millichap) houseINsandiego Realty

HOW TO GET THE BANK TO REMOVE THE RIGHT TO PURSUE A DEFICIENCY JUDGEMENT IN A SHORT SALE (In CA)

Under CA Code of Civil Procedure 580(d) the lender may not seek a deficiency after a non-judical foreclosure even if it is a recourse loan. So if the lender does not approve a short sale without the deficiency language, then in most cases, it would be in the best interest of the seller to accept a foreclosure. The lender will then bear the higher cost of disposing an REO and will not have the benefit of enforcing a deficiency on the borrower. This point needs to be raised with the lender's negotiator and if they do not have the authority to remove the deficiency then escalate to higher levels of management. Our firm has enjoyed a good deal of success in having the deficiency language removed from approval letters with many lenders, including BofA, using this argument. You might consider consulting an attorney for legal advice or have an attorney argue the point for you.  (Credit to author Bob Hagan) houseINsandiego.

WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO OUR ECONOMY?

When it comes time to assign blame for what our Country is going through, We all have plenty of candidates, the "Sub Prime" loans, corruption, Obama, the housing bubble, the Mortgage bankers, Wall street, etc... But, have you stopped to think, what is the true underlying cause of this "Recession" soon to be "Depression"? Have you noticed that if everybody blames it on something different, it might be because there are many different things that happened? and maybe they are all right.

I will give you my humble opinion: It is the Baby Boomer DEMOGRAPHICS!!!

The good old "Baby Boomer" generation, has always impacted our modern economy, from its inception back in 1945 until NOW!
As Baby-boomers came into this world, our (I am one of them) massive numbers (78 Million babies), became the largest generation ever to walk on the face of the earth, our presence demanded a special treatment through every phase of our growth, so we have seen everything on the path of this huge group adapt to serve it, hail the Baby Boomers!, the disposable diapers made their appearance in the early years, you then saw the biggest "generational gap" when as teenagers we rebelled against older standards and started the Rock and Roll era, in the 50's, then we created drugs and peace movements to complement our idealistic and rebellious college years; the economy felt our impact and suffered the worst inflation ever in the 70's, when we incorporated into the work place and having disposable income; we then boosted the stock market through the biggest bull markets ever seen when we started investing in our 401k's in the 80's; We then created the world's largest credit bubble when we turned to our 40's and bought into the biggest and nicest homes money could buy, twice the size of the previous generation's homes (the McMansions) in the 90's. And finally, as we entered our 50's when we are expected to start settling and preparing for retirement, we stopped spending.
This sudden drop in the money flow that our economy, and the world had grown so used to, made a huge impact in the value of everything, starting with houses, which immediately stopped appreciating....the bubble had burst, values started dropping fast, and on their downward path they exposed the high risk formulas that had been used to provide the massive amounts of easy credit that was used to fuel the massive housing boom...these bad news profoundly affected the stock market, this in turn jeopardized the bank's ability to grant financing to the industry, this in turn was a nasty blow to all the economic activity and pretty soon, this crisis touched everything and aligned all the different industries to the beat of a single and deathly pessimistic tune, a vicious cycle that could only be interrupted by a massive influx of money. 

By the time the Government was able to act, it was too late, we wasted precious time waiting for Bush to step down, for Obama to be in, we now have a tremendous problem fueling on lack of jobs, lack of spending, an over leveraged economy, assets that have lost 50% of their value. What would pull us out of this crisis would be again, massive spending, but originating from consumers, the people not the government, we cannot cure the over leveraged economy by borrowing more money, so this time, I am afraid, this cure will not work.
The Government has been trying hard to substitute the required spending with the "bailouts", but sooner than later we will discover that there is not enough money that can be injected, that could turn the tables, specially not "borrowed" money.
And worst of all, pretty soon, the government spending will need to be paid back, interest rates will go up, taxes will go up. Prices of everything will tend to drop, not for good reasons, but because there is no money.... deflation ......depression.
Our problem is over leverage and gigantic debt, you cannot cure this with more debt.
I guess we will have to hold on tight, adjust our economy to what we are going through, because it is going to be like this for many, many years. Each of us will need to focus on being more efficient, on embarking activities that cater to the most basic needs of people, bare necessities, basic housing, basic everything, the rest will see their activity diminish and in some cases extinguish.
They are moving our cheese my friends, we need to focus on looking for cheese where it makes sense, and stop dreaming that our old cheese is going to reappear and things will go back to the way they were a couple years back.